Food-at-home prices in the United States increased 2.3% in 2025 compared with 2024, according to the USDA Economic Research Service (USDA ERS). Recent category data show that grocery inflation is uneven: coffee, candy, rice, and beef rose while butter, cheese, chicken parts, bananas, and lettuce declined in the year ending August 2026. These figures can help meal planners decide where substitutions and flexible recipes may matter most.
Contents
- Overall grocery price trends
- Pantry staples and bakery prices
- Meat, poultry, seafood, and eggs
- Dairy and refrigerated groceries
- Fruit and vegetable prices
- Beverages, sweeteners, fats, and spreads
Overall grocery price trends
The USDA ERS reports that U.S. food-at-home prices increased 1.2% in 2024, after rising 5.0% in 2023. In 2022, food-at-home prices rose 11.4%, the highest annual increase in the recent series cited by the USDA. The 20-year historical average annual increase through 2025 was 2.6%.
| USDA measure | Change or estimate | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Food at home | 11.4% increase | 2022 |
| Food at home | 5.0% increase | 2023 |
| Food at home | 1.2% increase | 2024 |
| Food at home | 2.3% increase | 2025 versus 2024 |
| All food, including food away from home | 2.9% increase | 2025 |
| Food at home | 2.4% forecast increase | 2026 |
Source: USDA ERS Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings. The 2026 figure is a USDA forecast, not a completed-year measurement. USDA forecasts seven of its 15 food-at-home categories to grow faster than their 20-year historical averages in 2026. For a household budget, that means the overall forecast is useful context, but category-level shopping decisions still require attention to the specific foods on the list.
The 2025 food-at-home figure is also reported in USDA ERS Ag and Food Statistics: Food Prices and Spending. These annual figures describe broad U.S. price movement; the detailed figures below use the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending August 2026.
Pantry staples and bakery prices
The BLS CPI category for cereals and bakery products was 2.6% higher in August 2026 than in August 2025. Within that group, cereals and cereal products increased 3.1%. Breakfast cereal also rose 3.1%, while flour and prepared flour mixes increased 0.6%.
Rice, pasta, and cornmeal prices rose 3.4% over the same year. Rice alone increased 4.7%, making it one of the faster-moving basic pantry items in this group. Bakery product prices increased 2.4%. Bread rose 3.8%, and cookies increased 5.0%.
| Grocery item or group | 12-month change |
|---|---|
| Cereals and bakery products | +2.6% |
| Cereals and cereal products | +3.1% |
| Flour and prepared flour mixes | +0.6% |
| Rice, pasta, and cornmeal | +3.4% |
| Rice | +4.7% |
| Bakery products | +2.4% |
| Bread | +3.8% |
| Cookies | +5.0% |
Source: BLS CPI Table 7: August 2026 12-Month Analysis. For meal planning, these numbers distinguish relatively stable flour from faster-rising rice and cookies, but they do not establish the price of any particular brand, package size, or store item.
Meat, poultry, seafood, and eggs
The broad BLS CPI category for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 1.1% over the year ending August 2026. The combined meats, poultry, and fish category rose 3.5%, while the meats category alone increased 3.6%.
Beef was notably higher. Beef and veal prices increased 5.9%; uncooked ground beef rose 7.2%, uncooked beef roasts rose 8.4%, and uncooked beef steaks increased 4.0%. These distinctions matter for a meal plan because the rise was not identical across beef formats.
Other proteins moved differently. Pork prices increased 0.6%, while bacon and related products fell 3.4%. Fresh and frozen chicken parts decreased 2.3%. The available BLS figures therefore show a mixed protein aisle rather than one uniform meat trend.
Source: BLS CPI Table 7: August 2026 12-Month Analysis. The figures cover the United States and compare August 2026 with August 2025. They are index-based category changes, not forecasts and not quotes for a specific shopping basket.
Dairy and refrigerated groceries
The U.S. dairy and related products category decreased 0.3% over the year ending August 2026, but its components diverged. Milk prices increased 4.1%. Fresh whole milk rose 4.7%, while fresh milk other than whole milk increased 4.0%.
Cheese and related products moved in the opposite direction, falling 3.8%. Ice cream and related products decreased 1.8%. This contrast is useful when building a weekly plan: a refrigerated section can contain both rising essentials and declining discretionary or substitute categories at the same time.
| Dairy or refrigerated category | 12-month change |
|---|---|
| Dairy and related products | -0.3% |
| Milk | +4.1% |
| Fresh whole milk | +4.7% |
| Fresh milk other than whole milk | +4.0% |
| Cheese and related products | -3.8% |
| Ice cream and related products | -1.8% |
Source: BLS CPI Table 7: August 2026 12-Month Analysis. These are U.S. CPI changes for August 2025 to August 2026. A category decline does not mean every product in that category became less expensive, and a category increase does not describe every package or retailer.
Fruit and vegetable prices
The BLS CPI fruits and vegetables category increased 3.2% over the year ending August 2026. Fresh fruits and vegetables combined increased 3.1%, with different movements for fruit and vegetables.
Fresh fruit prices increased 3.8%. Apples rose 5.4%, citrus fruit increased 2.4%, and oranges, including tangerines, decreased 0.9%. Bananas decreased 1.4%. Those figures show why a flexible fruit plan can respond to category differences without assuming that all fresh produce is moving together.
Fresh vegetable prices increased 2.6%. Potatoes rose 3.6%, while lettuce decreased 2.2%.
| Produce item or group | 12-month change |
|---|---|
| Fruits and vegetables | +3.2% |
| Fresh fruits and vegetables | +3.1% |
| Fresh fruit | +3.8% |
| Apples | +5.4% |
| Bananas | -1.4% |
| Citrus fruit | +2.4% |
| Oranges, including tangerines | -0.9% |
| Fresh vegetables | +2.6% |
| Potatoes | +3.6% |
| Lettuce | -2.2% |
Source: BLS CPI Table 7: August 2026 12-Month Analysis. These measurements are for U.S. consumer prices from August 2025 to August 2026. They support comparisons among the listed categories, but they do not provide a regional price ranking or a prediction for the next harvest season.
Beverages, sweeteners, fats, and spreads
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials increased 3.7% over the year ending August 2026. Juices and nonalcoholic drinks rose 3.5%, while carbonated drinks increased 4.4%. Coffee prices increased 6.1%, and instant coffee increased 11.0%, the largest listed increase in this group.
Sugar and sweets prices increased 6.1%. Candy and chewing gum rose 8.1%. These figures separate everyday beverage planning from occasional sweet purchases, while showing that both groups had notable increases.
Fats and oils decreased 0.3%. Butter prices fell 8.3%, while peanut butter increased 4.7%. The difference between butter and peanut butter is another example of why a grocery budget organized only by broad aisle may miss important item-level changes.
Source: BLS CPI Table 7: August 2026 12-Month Analysis. All figures in this section compare U.S. prices in August 2026 with August 2025. They describe measured CPI changes; the USDA’s separate 2026 food-at-home figure is explicitly a forecast.
For meal planning, the clearest pattern is variation. Beef, rice, coffee, candy, apples, and milk recorded increases in the supplied August 2026 comparison, while chicken parts, bacon, cheese, butter, bananas, oranges, and lettuce recorded decreases. Using those differences as a planning signal can help identify where a recipe has interchangeable ingredients, while keeping the USDA’s annual forecast separate from the BLS’s category measurements.
The category spread is also visible in the size of the changes. Instant coffee rose 11.0%, compared with 3.7% for nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials overall. Uncooked beef roasts rose 8.4%, while the broader meats, poultry, fish, and eggs category rose 1.1%. Butter fell 8.3%, even as milk rose 4.1%. These comparisons should be read as differences in CPI categories and periods, not as a guarantee that one household will see the same checkout total.
A practical meal-planning list can therefore separate ingredients by how exposed they are to these movements. Pantry basics such as flour, rice, and bread had different rates; proteins ranged from higher beef prices to lower chicken-part prices; and produce included both rising apples and declining bananas. The data support reviewing recipes at the ingredient level, especially when a plan relies heavily on one item rather than spreading purchases across several categories.